Season simulator forecasts survival for Hull City – but only just

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A simulator run by website FIveThirtyEight has forecast that Hull City will stay up this season, but only by the skin of their teeth.

The website published the results of its latest season simulation for the Championship this week, which forecast that Hull City will finish fourth bottom of the table at the end of the season.

The forecasts are made using ratings given to teams based on past performances and estimated market values. Once every match is forecast, a simulator forecasts the whole season.

Top-spot Fulham are far and away the favourites to win the championship, on 58%, while second-placed Bournemouth have only a 14% chance.

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At the other end of the table, Derby County are even more strongly forecast to be relegated – the website gives them an 89% chance of going down and predicts they will pick up 32 points by the end of the season, which is decent, considering their 21-point deduction.

Barnsley are forecast to come second bottom on a point total of 39, despite having made the play-offs last season. They are given a 70% chance of going down at the end of the season.

Only slightly better off – very slightly – are Peterborough United, who the simulator puts at 40 points come the end of the season, with a 69% chance of going down.

The forecasting site then predicts that Hull City will finish fourth bottom, with a 21% chance of going down and a predicted 49 points – it also gives Hull less than 1% chance of making the play-offs.

For City’s match against Blackburn Rovers on Boxing Day the website has forecast a 46% chance of a win for the Lancashire side, with a Tigers win or a draw both being given a 27% chance.





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